AI, the efficiency crisis, and the new marketing playbook for 2026.

In-depth Analysis and Contextualization

In recent days, the marketing and growth market in Brazil has consolidated a paradox that should define 2026: on one hand, e-commerce continues its strong expansion, driven by AI, automation, and consumer appetite; on the other, digital performance marketing faces its most severe efficiency crisis in a decade. On one side, Black Week is booming, Christmas is projected to generate billions, and live commerce is reinventing itself. On the other, paid media is more expensive, conversions are falling, and a volume-based acquisition model is no longer breaking even.

In e-commerce, Black Week registered a growth of 7.23% and reinforced the online channel as an engine of the digital economy, with projections of R$ 26.82 billion in Christmas revenue alone, exceeding 2024 [ref1]. In parallel, ABComm projects R$ 224.7 billion in e-commerce revenue in 2025, a 10% year-on-year growth [ref2]. But this progress comes with a warning: the cost per thousand impressions on Facebook reached R$ 51.00 in September 2024, while the average conversion rate of Brazilian e-commerce fell to 1.92% [ref2]. Growth has become more expensive – and less predictable.

In this scenario, artificial intelligence ceases to be a promise and assumes the role of infrastructure. Co-pilots and intelligent agents already automate repetitive tasks, integrate data, and free up professionals for more strategic and creative decisions in e-commerce [ref1]. At the same time, messaging companies applied to WhatsApp and automation platforms show that personalization at scale, supported by AI, is now the differentiator between being just another message and orchestrating relevant journeys [ref2][ref7]. The game is no longer just about buying attention: it’s about transforming data into continuous and profitable relationships.

Data, Cases and Examples

Recent digital retail data clearly outlines the new competitive frontier. During Black Week, e-commerce volume increased by 11.65% year-over-year, driving an overall increase of 7.23% during the period [ref1]. For Christmas, projections indicate R$ 26.82 billion in online sales, an increase of R$ 9.76 billion compared to 2024 [ref1]. In parallel, a survey by Conversion shows Brazil as the second country that searched most for Black Friday discounts on Google between September 2024 and September 2025, with 387,000 searches, second only to France [ref3]. There is no lack of purchase intent – what is lacking is efficiency in capturing and monetizing this demand.

On the cost side, the CPM at R$51.00 on Facebook and the average conversion rate of 1.92% are forcing brands to revise their model centered on paid media and short-term funnels [ref2]. The most consistent response has come from three fronts: data-driven loyalty and repurchase programs, intelligent automation in high-engagement channels, and the use of AI to predict and influence behavior. Companies specializing in relationship management report an increase in demand for strategies that maximize LTV, repurchase rate, and engagement, replacing the exclusive focus on CAC [ref2].

In the field of technology, AI platforms applied to campaigns already allow for everything from predictive segmentation to dynamic creative generation, adjusting messages in real time according to user behavior [ref6][ref7]. For SMEs, this means access to an arsenal previously restricted to large players, reducing operational costs and increasing sales predictability [ref6]. At the same time, the regulatory environment itself, with the Tax Reform and new rules for marketplaces, is forcing maturity: full traceability, an end to digital informality, and the need to professionalize operations, data, and marketing governance [ref4].

Consequences, Opportunities and Trends

The result of this convergence is a new growth playbook. In the short term, those who insist on scaling solely through paid media, without solid retention foundations, tend to see shrinking margins. The opportunity lies in combining three movements: repositioning marketing as the center of revenue intelligence, accelerating the adoption of AI applied to first-party data and messaging, and migrating from the campaign funnel to the customer lifecycle. Metrics such as LTV, repurchase rate, and engagement will guide the budget as much as ROAS and CAC [ref2].

For CMOs and growth leaders, this redefines critical competencies: advanced analytics, understanding of martech, data governance, fluency in AI applied to the business, and the ability to orchestrate multidisciplinary squads. Those who master this agenda are already beginning to be recognized as the new marketing elite, responsible not only for exposure but also for long-term growth and profitability [ref5]. At the same time, SMEs are gaining ground by using AI to run lean operations, with less waste and more predictability [ref6].

Looking ahead to 2026, three trends are consolidating: the centrality of proprietary data and brand communities as an antidote to media inflation; AI as an invisible layer connecting customer service, campaigns, pricing, and logistics; and retention marketing as the main driver of margins in e-commerce. For brands and professionals, the message is clear: the period of easy growth through advertising is over. The next cycle will reward those who transform technology, data, and creativity into continuous relationship systems, not just one-off campaigns.

References

[ref1] My Content – E-commerce leads innovation and growth in December 2025
[ref2] Terra – Brazilian digital marketing faces efficiency crisis
[ref3] Meio & Mensagem – Black Friday 2025: Brazil is second in the search for discounts
[ref4] Exam – The digital marketing launch of the Tax Reform
[ref5] InfoMoney – Elite InfoMoney: How CMOs are redefining marketing
[ref6] KDEA360 Magazine – Artificial Intelligence revolutionizes digital marketing
[ref7] Digital Radar Brasilia – Artificial intelligence redefines marketing campaigns