Leadership in times of uncertainty: mental models for the new game.

Why uncertainty has become the norm.

In the boardrooms and war rooms of 2026, the question is no longer how to eliminate uncertainty, but how to lead from within it. Geopolitical crises, economic volatility, technological disruption, and cultural pressure for purpose and diversity have transformed the leadership agenda into a dynamic chessboard. Leaders who were once rewarded for precise planning are now evaluated on their ability to read weak signals, update hypotheses, and keep their teams productive amidst constant change. What separates those who merely react from those who move forward is less access to information and more the mental model with which they interpret the context. Leadership in times of uncertainty ceases to be an abstract topic and becomes a core competency for survival and growth.

Mental models for better decision-making in the fog.

Several mental models have gained prominence. The first is adaptive strategy: instead of a large, fixed plan, portfolios of bets, short testing cycles, and continuous scenario review. Error ceases to be a deviation and becomes a learning opportunity. The second is portfolio thinking: leaders work with multiple plausible scenarios and rehearse responses before a crisis erupts. A third model is leadership as radar: combining data, AI, and active listening to clients and teams to capture changes in behavior, engagement, and risk, transforming these signals into concrete decisions. Finally, humanized leadership acts as a shock absorber: radical transparency, care for mental health, and psychological safety maintain the team’s energy while course corrections are made.

Practical examples: from the slide to the factory floor

In practice, leaders who thrive in times of uncertainty operate almost like experiment designers. In companies exposed to strong demand fluctuations, multidisciplinary squads rapidly test new digital offerings and pricing models, with clear success indicators and short evaluation windows. In the real economy, retailers use data and AI to calibrate inventory in near real-time and avoid stockouts or excess unsold items, while HR and management teams monitor signs of burnout and turnover, adjusting goals and communication rituals. In contexts of technological disruption, marketing and product leaders create internal labs to test generative AI, task automation, and personalization at scale, protecting the core business while opening up space to explore new revenue streams. In common, they all treat the organization as a living system: they observe, learn, react, and communicate the reasoning behind decisions.

Leadership trends that will shape the next cycles.

As the competitive environment becomes more unpredictable, leadership in times of uncertainty tends to rely on a few clear vectors. The importance of business and data literacy as critical competencies grows, not only for C-level executives but also for middle management. Leaner and more streamlined structures intensify the competition for executive positions, favoring profiles with systemic vision, the ability to navigate ambiguity, and refined political skills. The intergenerational agenda gains relevance: teams combine experience and innovative restlessness, requiring leaders capable of mediating different languages and expectations. And the convergence between innovation, sustainability, and humanization ceases to be mere rhetoric and becomes a condition for competitiveness. In short, leading comes to mean continuously rehearsing the future, with the courage to abandon old maps, the discipline to learn quickly, and a genuine commitment to the people who will navigate uncertainty alongside the company.